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Consumer health

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US retail sales are seen as a key barometer for consumer health, although bear in mind that a) data is likely to be revised and b) service sector spending may be the more significant growth area, at least if relative price moves are any indication.
  • We also have US producer price inflation today, which is generally a better indication of pricing power for listed corporates than is consumer price inflation.
  • The Bank of England, which is allowed to comment on the UK EU referendum, has commented on the UK EU referendum. The Bank warned of recession risks if the UK were to leave the EU. Those who support exit tend not to base their support on economic arguments.
  • Final April CPI is due from German – not especially noteworthy, perhaps, but Germany is starting to see some rather high pay claims coming through which we believe may start adding meaningfully to inflation. Revised Q1 GDP is also due from Germany and Italy.