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The Fed against markets

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • There are three speakers from the Fed on the agenda today. It is almost as if the Federal Reserve were ganging up on financial markets to remind them that rates are going up this year. Part of the communication problem is that economists at the Fed look at the real world, markets look at inaccurate data.
  • The Financial Times has a piece of research suggesting dwindling numbers of the American middle class (though their definitions can perhaps be questioned). This has been compounded by the growth of inflation inequality – it is more expensive to be lower income, as a rule.
  • Issues like the plight of the middle class need to receive more attention than they do in financial markets because they are having a direct bearing on political economics and possible policy outcomes – something we covered recently in work on prejudice politics.
  • The Bank of England meets, but nothing is expected from the decision per se. Governor Carney's press conference is likely to be the focus, with questions on the EU referendum. Recent polls suggest that "yes" (remain) voters are motivated by economics, "no" voters by immigration issues.