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Growth still surprises positively

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Global growth (on the UBS weighted surprise index) has continued to surprise to the upside, and (per our recent research) growth data is being revised higher after the initial release. However a lawyer says she sees risks to the global economy. Which of these things should markets pay attention to?
  • The US Fed offers its March minutes, of heightened interest given Chair Yellen's subsequent attempts to put herself at the forefront of the FOMC, behind the curve. What weight other members give to rising inflation threats and growth numbers will be important.
  • Germany gives industrial production data. Sentiment data in the manufacturing sector may have been affected by the stronger Euro (it should not be, but sentiment data has a habit of giving nominal results when it is supposed to give real results).
  • The UK BRC shop price index showed less deflation. This fits with a trend recently whereby some countries have had lower factors raising inflation or lowering deflation (the US and China both fall into this category) but it is local relative price changes not global trends that are driving the inflation revival.