Follow Paul Donovan

Sentiment and trade

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US politics is back with the Wisconsin primary elections for the US presidential candidates. However, at this stage markets are not focusing too much on the policy specifics of the different candidates.
  • The data calendar is mainly about service sector sentiment today, with the attendant risks sentiment data always has. Euro area sentiment (unaffected by the problems of the currency, being service sector) should be relatively well supported.
  • US service sector sentiment, like the more currency sensitive manufacturing side, should signal ongoing economic expansion. Service sector inflation in the US is running comfortably over 3%, suggesting a degree of pricing power for service companies.
  • US trade data is due – US companies have been steadily increasing their market share of the Euro area and Japan in recent years (in spite of the currency moves). However, as we have recently written, the movement in oil prices can have a big impact on the value but not the volume of global trade.