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Politics, and then the Fed

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Politics looms, again. In the Euro area the Spanish appear to be heading to another general election, just after the UK referendum on EU membership. The performance of populist, anti-EU parties in Spain is a focus for markets.
  • The latest round of primary votes in the US presidential race has given Clinton 90% of the required Democrat delegates and Trump nearly 77% of the required Republican delegates. This may focus attention on the limited information we have as to the candidates' fiscal platforms.
  • The US Federal Reserve meeting today is curiously divided – not just hawks versus doves, but also ideologically. With most US consumer price inflation measures running at or above their long term averages we see US monetary policy tightening – but not just yet.
  • UK advanced GDP for Q1 is due – political uncertainty may have delayed investment, but UK growth has never really been founded on investment. German consumer confidence and Euro area M3 data are also scheduled.