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Politics in Europe, again

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Austrian Freedom Party headed the poll in the first round of the Austrian presidential election. The presidency is largely ceremonial, but the result is another instance of an anti-establishment, anti-EU party winning support; this may be a focus for investors.
  • The German ifo survey is due. The stronger Euro does mean that pricing power for European exports has weakened – German extra-EU PPI inflation turned negative for the first time since early 2014 – which might have some relevance.
  • The UK CBI trends survey also gives some evidence of pricing power, but this is not especially pertinent to investors with the EU referendum still on the horizon. Business optimism may be more relevant in that context.
  • The US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey is due. Most of the regional surveys have been quite supportive of growth, although rising labour costs are something to consider in terms of overall sentiment.