Follow Paul Donovan

Discerning policy makers

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed's Rosengren is clearly a discerning policy maker who reads UBS research, for he has declared markets are too pessimistic on the Fed. This fits with our research showing that revised data tends to reveal far more positive economic surprises than initial data.
  • Carney of the Bank of England testifies to Parliament today. The Bank is seen on hold near term, of course, and questioning is likely to focus around the UK referendum on the EU in the wake of publication of the Treasury's scenario analysis yesterday.
  • The ECB bank lending survey is due. Bank lending has generally been OK in the major Euro economies (bar Italy), but negative interest rates have raised borrowing costs elsewhere – hence the TLTRO in March, signalling the ECB prioritises better bank lending over a weaker currency.
  • Germany publishes the ZEW business sentiment survey, and in the US there is yet more politics with the New York primary elections. These are "critical" apparently. Aren't they all?