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Economist versus non-economist

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The saga of the Fed divided continues – Kaplan (not an economist, unless one is going to be very broad in the use of that term) declaring that data is weak and justifies caution on growth. The pitting of economist against non-economist on the FOMC is set to continue today with three speakers.
  • There is the release of the NFIB small business sentiment survey. This has all the problems survey data normally has, and has been criticised in the past, but small businesses are the dynamic part of the economy and one of the reasons that data is frequently being revised higher after the initial releases.
  • Italy announced a EUR5bn bank bailout type of fund – private sector, not central bank instigated because the Euro is not a fully functioning monetary union. Italy's credit transmission mechanism has not been working well, with 0% bank lending growth on a good day.
  • Final German inflation data is not likely to excite markets too much, although Germany is one of the economies with more local inflation pressures developing. UK data is not experiencing too much pressure at the moment, and central bank policy is politically constrained.