Better growth before the IMF
- Global growth data continues to come in stronger than expected (our weighted surprise index keeps rising), and revisions are even stronger than that. The fears for global growth that are sometimes expressed seem to be overdone on the basis of the evidence.
- This is the cue for the IMF to raise fears about global growth. The IMF meetings this week will include new forecasts on Tuesday. IMF forecasts tend to be a little less timely than those of the market, and the IMF global growth number is above our own at the moment.
- More localised inflation pressures – food prices keeping Chinese consumer price inflation elevated, and producer prices also coming in with less deflation than had been anticipated. There is some Nordic region inflation data today.
- Little of any note on the US data calendar, but Dudley and Kaplan of the Fed are speaking. Dudley's topic (community development) is not perhaps an obvious one for policy based remarks, but with a divided Fed any public appearance is worthy of some attention.