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| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Japanese growth came out negative (annualised) in the fourth quarter – the illusion of Abenomics seems to continue to fade. It was less negative than feared, and the deflator (as the broadest measure of prices in the economy) was +1.5% yoy.
  • Chinese trade data was weaker (imports and exports), but this is nominal rather than real, there is the issue of lunar new year dodging around the calendar and causing distortions. The data is not entirely consistent with reports from some other countries either.
  • The Euro area growth data should confirm an economy growing, and growing above trend at that – but why would a little thing like above trend growth deter Draghi of the ECB from his single minded pursuit of further policy accommodation?
  • The US offers housing data, and also the NFIB survey of small business sentiment. The small business sector is critical to the pace of growth at the moment, and may account for why US data is being revised higher most of the time, but the NFIB has been subject to political bias in the past.