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Fed speak

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US employment report on Friday proves something of a distraction for this week – but before that there is a quick barrage of Fed comment. Chair Yellen speaks to the Economic Club, which at least ensures she gets an intelligent audience.
  • Williams is speaking on the "turbulent economy" which may allow scope to distinguish "data dependence" from "data point dependence" – stressing the importance of trends. Economists know trends matter, but soundbite economics and amateur economic pundits are a tough force to argue against.
  • Government savings from negative interest rates in Japan have prompted a debate about whether the money should be used for fiscal stimulus. Negative rates are a rebranded tax, which supports the idea, but it does start to look a lot like debt monetisation if pursued.
  • Japanese consumers spend more money, but not in retail sales (services, presumably). Euro area money supply is due, which is of some interest given that negative rates there have led to a more cash based economy.