Mainly central bank problems
- Central bank speak is about all we can look forward to today. Over the weekend Weidmann of the ECB was being quite cutting in his dismissal of helicopter money, and not terribly charitable about the direction of ECB policy overall.
- Switzerland, of cited as a precedent for the ECB, may offer a warning of the unintended consequences. The bank tax represented by negative rates led to banks raising lending rates in the real economy. As the ECB wishes to encourage bank lending this may be an issue to ponder.
- Lacker of the Fed is speaking in Paris. This is in the context of the recent policy decision, but also of increased inflation pressures. With rising wages, real borrowing costs for the consumer are falling in the US.
- The data is very limited today – the national Chicago activity index and housing data from the US. The Bundesbank monthly report may be worth a glance to see what the bank thinks of inflation pressures in the German economy – a risk we recently highlighted.