Following a weaker than expected Q4 in the US, our US team have revised their growth outlook to 1.5%yoy for this year. This reflects a continuation of current growth levels into the first half of 2016. The Fed resumes rate increases in
The impact elsewhere is muted as global growth was a domestic story this year anyway. The Euro area goes to 1.6% (was 1.8%). China has weaker trade offset by a firm policy response to leave growth at 6.2%. Global growth goes from 3.3% to 2.9%.
Today has a central bank tone to it – lots of ECB speakers (remember that Draghi is probably not representative of the consensus on the ECB), and the Bank of England inflation report and policy decision.
The US has productivity and unit labour cost data. We expect productivity rather than employment to take the strain of weaker growth (raising labour cost pressures in consequence).