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New forecasts

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Following a weaker than expected Q4 in the US, our US team have revised their growth outlook to 1.5%yoy for this year. This reflects a continuation of current growth levels into the first half of 2016. The Fed resumes rate increases in
  • The impact elsewhere is muted as global growth was a domestic story this year anyway. The Euro area goes to 1.6% (was 1.8%). China has weaker trade offset by a firm policy response to leave growth at 6.2%. Global growth goes from 3.3% to 2.9%.
  • Today has a central bank tone to it – lots of ECB speakers (remember that Draghi is probably not representative of the consensus on the ECB), and the Bank of England inflation report and policy decision.
  • The US has productivity and unit labour cost data. We expect productivity rather than employment to take the strain of weaker growth (raising labour cost pressures in consequence).