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Meanwhile, in the real world

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Purchasing Managers' Indicator data comes out across the world today. This is not the best quality data – it is prone to overreact to underlying trends, and subject to distortions. But the trend over several months is generally indicative of economic activity.
  • Chinese and Japanese PMI data both improved. The Euro area is expected to stay relatively robust (these economies' data may be flattered by weaker currencies. PMIs are supposed to measure real activity but they tend to be distorted by price moves nonetheless).
  • The US ADP payrolls is not a particular focus for markets (big data does not get universal approval). The US PMI is also generally subordinate to the ISM figures, but should show economic expansion.
  • Euro area retail sales for December are a focus, as domestic demand is important to our strengthening Euro growth story. UK politics is starting around the EU referendum, even though the proposed EU-UK settlement has yet to be agreed.