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Too soon to tell

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US Fed's Fischer hinted that it was too soon to tell whether markets were impacting the economy. The UBS weighted surprise indices have shown an improvement in growth, and the inflation surprise index in February had the biggest rise since early 2014.
  • The weakness of sterling on EU membership fears has continued, and the EU parliament meets on the topic of UK exit from the EU today (the Commission president is speaking, which may generate media headlines).
  • Japan saw an improvement in small business confidence (Japanese small businesses not as important as in other economies, but still very important). Rising confidence ahead of the wage round would be helpful.
  • Trump won the Republican vote in Nevada – markets are not yet paying serious attention to the US presidential race, but there are more questions from clients on the topic. The Saudis have ruled out an oil production cut.