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Minutes and inflation

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed minutes noted market volatility (the volatility is still there, though equities are not as negative as they were), and softer manufacturing production and retail sales data (both have improved). Overall, probably a signal of a slower tightening.
  • Bullard of the Fed, a dove, was sounding dovish suggesting that market inflation expectations should hinder rate increases. This is strange, as markets inflation expectations are a) poor predictors of inflation and b) have little impact on the real economy.
  • Chinese inflation was pushed higher by food prices. The lunar new year effect means that we need to be cautious about the interpretation, but more generally food price inflation will probably bear watching this year.
  • The EU gathers together for the summit to talk about the UK – if a deal is done it opens the way for a referendum in the UK in June.