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OPEC, and opinion polls

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • OPEC and some non-OPEC members have agreed to oil production cuts - the first since 2008. The consequent rise in the oil price is not (yet) of major macro significance. Gulf states will still run fiscal deficits and need to sell US assets. Headline inflation in the developed world was rising anyway.
  • Confirmation that film "actor" Steven Mnuchin is the next US treasury secretary led to a presentation of policy via the media not Twitter. Mnuchin indicated fiscal easing would be a priority, that he liked low rates from the Federal Reserve, and that tariffs were unlikely to be imposed on China on day one.
  • Opinion polls abound in the markets today. China's business sentiment PMI poll showed expectations of accelerating and decelerating economic activity (depending on the pollster used). Europe's final PMI data is also due, with all the quality that final data offers (i.e. none).
  • The US ISM business sentiment opinion poll data is expected to show accelerating activity – although the export subcomponents may be affected by the dollar (as the poll asks about real exports, the results are not supposed to be affected by the dollar, but they often are).