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| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US FBI sent a letter (very definitely a letter, not an email) intervening in the Presidential race in a way that reversed their previous intervention in the Presidential race, at least as far as the market interpretation is concerned. The Mexican peso rallied.
  • A rallying Mexican peso tells us that the market has changed its view of the political realities in the US. It does not necessarily indicate that the political realities of the US have changed (they may have, it is just that financial market participants may not be attuned to reality).
  • With political noise drowning out rational thought, the Euro area finance ministers meet to discuss Greece. This is not of much interest to markets. Media reports that financial equivalence rules may be tightened may be of more relevance, impacting the US and potentially the UK.
  • The UK media has continued to cover the recent High Court decision on the EU referendum with its customary degree of calm, rational analysis. The UK invoking Article 50 and starting divorce proceedings is not really in question; the nature of the divorce proceedings is a cause for uncertainty.