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Trump, stick or twist?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Trump appears to have reversed a rather eclectic set of campaign policy promises – suggesting he is less in favor of waterboarding, and might favor international climate deals. The questions for investors are whether economically significant policies (trade, wall building) may change, and whether Trump's personnel appointments are the more important signal.
  • The US Federal Reserve is releasing the minutes of their November meeting today, with expectations of a strong signal of a December rate increase as inflation pressures build. While it may not be a market focus, the intellectual division of the FOMC may be more important for markets in 2017.
  • OPEC seems to have agreed to defer agreement until OPEC oil ministers can agree to something – which leaves the issue of oil production essentially as it was. Oil prices have retreated a little on the news.
  • European purchasing manager opinion polls are due, and will record the state of the European economy with as much accuracy as any opinion poll can provide. The UK has the official confirmation of the leaks of the Autumn statement on fiscal policy, and the US is offering durable goods data.