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Politics now. Policy later.

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed meets, but no one seriously expects Fed action this meeting. Instead, we have the pleasure of examining every last syllable of the statement to discern hints about a) if there is any coherent model for determining policy in the future and b) what the December meeting is likely to bring.
  • In the meantime there is politics. The FBI has learned how to use Twitter. Opinion polls have narrowed. A total of 370 economists have offered a view on Trump's economic policies. Markets have reacted by increasing risk aversion trades.
  • The UK BRC shop price index again signaled that despite the Great Marmite Crisis of October 2016, the full effects of sterling's decline have yet to make their way into retail pricing at a shop level.
  • German labor market data is due; the strength of the labor market and associated wage increases are supporting the German consumer, but also serves as the key local driver of German inflation pressures. German core inflation has a low correlation with inflation elsewhere in the Euro area.