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Core leader, core growth, core inflation

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Wallonia's government, whose attitude to the EU-Canadian trade deal has been sliding like mayonnaise on French fries, seem prepared to agree to the deal. While this is a successful outcome (perhaps), the precedent of regional governments blocking trade deals is likely to hamper future negotiations with other countries.
  • President Xi of China has been declared the "core leader" of the country. This is not just a statement of the status quo, as it is generally believed that this position will enhance his power beyond his formal term of office – the core leadership has no term limits. Does this matter to markets? In the immediate future, no it does not.
  • The first reading on US GDP is due. This number is little more than a polite fiction, such is the extent of revisions these days. However, the broad signal is of normal growth, normal employment and normal inflation. Only the Fed is abnormal, it seems.
  • German, French and Spanish consumer prices are due –core inflation correlation is low, divergence in a rising inflation environment is likely. Japanese consumer prices were negative, but consumers remain convinced they have the highest inflation rate in the developed world. Investors may be interested in the level of support for Iceland's anti-establishment Pirates party in this weekend's election.