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Confidence and colloquialisms

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Euro area unemployment is due out. The aggregate number is of limited interest because it disguises the wide divergence of the regional data – although to be fair the US also has divergence (at a skills level) in its labour market.
  • Assorted Euro area confidence figures are due. The PMI data already released suggests that corporate economic confidence should be relatively strong. Political events may way on consumer confidence, but consumers do tend to be resilient.
  • The tone of the US Federal Reserve minutes suggests that the unanimity of the decision may have been more spin than conviction. Dissents had been expected, and rather than formally dissenting they dissenters expressed "concerns".
  • US Fed Vice Chair Fischer suggested that four rate hikes this year were "in the ballpark" – an American colloquialism that loosely translates into "UBS forecasts for the Fed are right".