Follow Paul Donovan

The natural order of things

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Federal Reserve demonstrated an appropriate sense of the natural order of things – economics comes first, markets second. Recognition of market moves, but focus on economics (and an implicit rebuke for those who focus on data points rather than trends).
  • The basic message from US policy makers seems to be - if the market volatility has real world consequences, the Fed will not raise rates; if the real world remains (justifiably) aloof from market shenanigans then the Fed will raise rates.
  • Germany is offering a nice range of price data today. Import prices (which will be crude oil affected) and consumer prices (which will be less crude oil affected). As we wrote last week there is a widening gulf (no pun) between crude and retail oil price changes.
  • The UK proffers its first stab in the dark at guessing Q4 GDP growth. The market is assuming a number around 2% yoy. The number will be revised, repeatedly. From a policy perspective the timing of the EU referendum is probably more pertinent.