Follow Paul Donovan

Welcome to Draghi-World

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • In Draghi-world the threats to the Euro area economy are palpable and only Mr Draghi can valiantly defend against them. It looks like we are going to get more policy accommodation from the ECB at their March meeting.
  • Whether more policy accommodation in required in the real world is another matter entirely. The PMI indicators of Euro area business sentiment are due. These are not the best quality data releases around, but they have been generally positive.
  • Market moves do not necessarily translate into real economic consequences. We put out a note showing just how little of the oil price move finds its way into retail oil prices (globally). Economists understand this, but "soundbite economics" tends not to.
  • The UK offers December retail sales figures (in the wake of Weale of the BoE muttering about rising inflation risks being present in the economy). The US gives us a PMI indicator that is not normally watched too closely by markets.