Revolutionary times. Surprising times.
- The volatility of markets continues – in spite of, not in response to, economic fundamentals. UBS has today published revised surprise indices which show that commodities are not correlating well with the real world.
- UK labour market data comes hard on the heels of Bank of England governor Carney offering some cautious comments on growth. Earnings data could be a focus (although the dramatic rise in self-employment may call into question some of these figures).
- US CPI inflation is likely to show the inexorable rise of core inflation (increasing for over a year) – even with oil comprising around 4% of the core CPI basket. Note that oil in the headline is gasoline, not crude, and gasoline inflation has risen relative to crude inflation.
- The UBS group has published a White Paper on the fourth industrial revolution, suggesting that developed economies are currently better positioned to manage the coming global changes than are emerging markets.