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Revolutionary times. Surprising times.

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The volatility of markets continues – in spite of, not in response to, economic fundamentals. UBS has today published revised surprise indices which show that commodities are not correlating well with the real world.
  • UK labour market data comes hard on the heels of Bank of England governor Carney offering some cautious comments on growth. Earnings data could be a focus (although the dramatic rise in self-employment may call into question some of these figures).
  • US CPI inflation is likely to show the inexorable rise of core inflation (increasing for over a year) – even with oil comprising around 4% of the core CPI basket. Note that oil in the headline is gasoline, not crude, and gasoline inflation has risen relative to crude inflation.
  • The UBS group has published a White Paper on the fourth industrial revolution, suggesting that developed economies are currently better positioned to manage the coming global changes than are emerging markets.