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Economists versus the world

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Bank of England was a subtle rebuke to the certainties of markets – markets are convinced UK rates are not going up, and yet there was a (single) vote to raise rates now. The division between economists and markets is a global issue.
  • Euro area data includes inflation figures from Spain and Italy (Spain's headline stays negative, but from an economic perspective this is a relative price change and not deflation). Merkel and Draghi meet for a cosy chat.
  • Three Fed speakers crowd the spotlight today including Dudley and Williams. Markets want to be dovish and doubtless will view their remarks through the prism of that particular prejudice.
  • There is something of a data dump of US economic information today – the central message is likely to be of an economy performing perfectly adequately, but with noticeable distortions in the nominal (not real) data from energy prices and the dollar.