Follow Paul Donovan

More waves in the storm of Fedspeak

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Three Fed speakers - Dudley, Bullard and Yellen. We know that they are
    likely to stay on message about rate hikes this year, essentially
    denying that the September FOMC statement ever happened.
  • Data on both sides of the Atlantic continues to signal that the real
    economy is rather indifferent to financial markets - although confidence
    data should always be treated with considerable caution. The Chicago PMI
    survey is due today, with the slight quirk that it may reflect nominal
    more than real issues.
  • ECB President Draghi is running out of time if he wants to claim that
    deflation is a real and present data in the Euro area, but today's flash
    CPI is one excuse that he could use. However, real economic data
    continues to be robust (German labour data is due today).
  • UK final Q2 GDP is due. We all know this is not really a final, final
    number as the UK ONS has a habit of revising, and revising large. The
    frequency and scale of revisions is one reason to be nervous about
    market reverence for single data releases.