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The Fed is on message. Get the message.

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Two of yesterday's Fed speakers seemed to be following a preordained communication strategy – signalling rate hikes this year, and trying to dispel the impression that the Fed is held hostage to financial markets.
  • New York Fed President Dudley did signal that the Fed may raise in October – the problem with this is not the act of raising (some think that they should have gone in June), but that to raise without a scheduled press conference would create uncertainty in 2016.
  • German consumer price inflation data is due – still impacted (at this stage) by the oil base effects. As those dissipate, the headline consumer price numbers are likely to be a little more of a focus for markets, especially the German data.
  • Euro area and US consumer confidence figures are due. It will be interesting to see if there is a contrast in how consumers (over)react to market volatility. The media has a disproportionate impact on consumer sentiment, so the data may just indicate where sensationalism is more rampant.