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Let's do it

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Finally. Time to end the US interest rate uncertainty. The fact that there is uncertainty – not just in markets (where it is to be expected) but amongst economists – is a signal that the Fed's attempts at policy transparency have been less than successful.
  • Looking at the big picture the US has rising growth, rising employment and rising inflation prospects. Failing to act means that policy becomes steadily more accommodative in real terms. However, today is perhaps less about the rate rise (which we expect) and more about the comment.
  • A comment on quantitative policy prospects and a clear signal on the pace of future tightening could give a benign tone to any rate increase. Breaking with (short term) data dependency could reduce volatility. Data has been volatile and frequently revised – making Fed expectations similarly volatile.
  • There is little other than the Fed to focus on, in financial markets. Out in the real world people are unlikely to be huddling around their television sets and smartphones, hanging on every word the Fed Chair utters. Out in the real world, no one really cares that much.