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Have some inflation while you are waiting

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • All is the waiting is so wearing. Economists are inclined to echo the views of several emerging market central bankers and yell loudly in the direction of the Fed "Just get on with it". This is actually rather the point. Uncertainty is potentially more damaging than a little rate rise.
  • The UK has labour data – wage pressures in the UK have been kept in check (spare labour in Poland and Spain has helped), but there has been some evidence of an increase in recent figures. The UK lags the US in this regard, but the numbers may be worth watching.
  • The Euro area has the misnamed "harmonised" consumer price inflation data – there being very little harmonised about consumer prices in the Euro area, which are the rather visible manifestation of the monetary union's dysfunction. As such the data tends to be downplayed.
  • The market expects US core CPI to come in near 2% yoy – core CPI includes a drag from oil prices (core CPI is about 4% oil). CPI is distorted higher by special factors, which is why the Fed favours the PCE deflator – but markets weight CPI as having greater importance (nearly three times the PCE's importance).