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Dealing with data (which may be dubious)

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Employment Cost Index from the US on Friday was weak, but also had characteristics in the details that call into question whether the data was giving as accurate a picture as could be hoped. Nonetheless, as labour market data matters much to the Fed, we must give the numbers some attention.
  • Today's US personal income data may offer further clues to the labour market (self-employed people do not necessarily take income as wages, for instance). We also have personal spending data, with signs that the retail sector in the United States continues to do well.
  • US inflation figures will be on display with the core personal consumer expenditure deflator (the Fed's BFF when it comes to inflation figures). There is a divergence between the PCE deflator and consumer price inflation, with the latter likely to rise more aggressively.
  • Final manufacturing sentiment data is due on both sides of the Atlantic, with the Euro area PMIs and the US ISM survey. The data should be consistent with ongoing moderate economic expansion. The Greek data may be worth a quick glance – optimism over a deal versus the grim reality of the economy.