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14 Aug: US data dominates (how nice)

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Yesterday's data confirmed that reports of the death of the US consumer were exaggerated, with improving retail sales and historical revisions higher. Another lesson in why markets should not obsess about single data points. The sales data now seems more consistent with retail sector wages and hiring, personal consumption data, etc.
  • US producer price inflation is due, dragged down by energy (this does not translate exactly into consumer prices, because wage costs are rising for energy retail). We also have industrial production, and Michigan consumer confidence – the latter following from peculiar weakness in the Conference Board measure.
  • The Euro area ha the flash estimate of Euro zone GDP. The first quarter showed better domestic demand, and export demand less strong than anticipated (as exporters chose profits over market share). The second quarter French data disappointed, but Germany was in line with expectations. .
  • This is the last morning call for a couple of weeks. While economists may appear superhuman, we do occasionally need interludes of rest and relaxation. I shall therefore be taking holiday and planning the writing of my next book (this is how economists rest and relax). Back 2 September