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The joy of consumption

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Today is rather consumer focused. The Japanese trade data showed healthy export growth (though note that the combination of pricing to market strategies and a weak yen leads to a price effect more than a volume effect). This data is consistent with reasonable global demand growth.
  • The UK consumer's position is show with retail sales data. The UK consumer has much to be happy about, and this will probably be reflected in the data (as nominal data the lingering price discounting of supermarkets will detract a little). The overall picture will allow the Bank of England to hike this year, we think.
  • European consumer sentiment is due in its flash form. As with all sentiment data there is a tendency to overreact, but market interest may be heighted by a desire to see if the Greco-German crisis had any impact beyond the borders of Greece.
  • As markets start to come around to economists' way of thinking, and accept the idea of US rate hikes, US labour market data is likely to become more important (the US Fed is headed by a labour market economist after all). We have initial jobless claims today.