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Well, duh

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Last night there was an emergency summit of the leaders of Germany, France, the ECB, the EU commission and the IMF. Not Greece. The meeting concluded that Greece and its creditors need to talk, but (and this was the important part), they need to talk "more intensely". The correct response to this is "well, duh."
  • In the real world, Euro area inflation is expected to turn positive in year on year terms. It was always going to turn positive (the threat of deflation in the Euro area was more mythical than real) though the persistent positive price surprises from Germany have helped.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates unchanged (as expected), kept language supporting a weaker currency, but otherwise was not especially aggressive in suggesting that further policy easing would be needed.
  • The UK has mortgage lending data – and with the Bank of England having chosen mortgage regulation as a policy tightening strategy, this is always worth a glance. The US has Brainard of the Fed speaking on policy, and factory orders numbers.