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They're back... the US consumer returns

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US consumer is alive and well and engaged in hedonism – so says (now) the revised retail sales data. The revisions to the retail sales figures make the US consumer story more consistent with other economic data points.
  • Brinkmanship in the Greco-German crisis is in full swing. The IMF has pulled its team out of negotiations. This is a gesture, as the IMF had not actually been talking to the Greeks this week, and it would not be that hard to put the team back into negotiations – but the gesture is still quite high profile.
  • Perhaps more seriously the German newspaper Bild reports that the German government is preparing plans for a Greek default that include controls on Greek bank deposits. If Greek bank depositors start to worry that controls, or a Greek exit from the Euro, may take place then politicians could lose control of the crisis.
  • Data is not especially inspiring today. Spanish consumer price inflation is likely to be negative but it is not likely to signal deflation. Michigan consumer sentiment is due from the United States, and with investors' new found enthusiasm for the US consumer that may be of interest.