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Payrolls payback

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US employment report looms large on the horizon, and this month should see some payback for the weather affected data in March (thus payrolls may overstate the underlying health of the labour market). We see unemployment continuing to drop.
  • The UK election has defied the predictions of the opinion polls, and looks likely to give a minority or small majority Conservative government. Sterling has rallied on the back of reduced political uncertainty in the near term, although attention is likely to shift to the prospects for an EU referendum.
  • Chinese trade data showed large declines in both import and export figures. The export data does need to be treated with some caution, as the stronger dollar will reduce the value but not the volume of exports to the Euro area and Japan.
  • Greek deflation data is due. Greece can credibly claim to be the only Euro area economy with deflation (in the sense of a general price decline). Greece is also the only Euro area economy that does not benefit from Mr Draghi's quantitative policy. Which was supposed to be about fighting deflation.