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Rates and currencies

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision shortly, with the expectation being for a quarter point cut to take rates to an all-time low. The economic data has been noticeably divergent, however, suggesting a possible need for more policy complexity.
  • EU forecasts are due, and are no better or worse than many other economic forecasts. However the picture of a cyclical improvement in the economy should be evident, with (critically for the ECB) no sign of genuine deflation.
  • The US senior loan officers' survey showed slower credit creation (the data shows the change in credit conditions, not the absolute level of credit conditions). The history of easing to date should be enough to maintain a trend like rate of economic activity.
  • US trade data and ISM non-manufacturing sentiment is due. The former is affected by the stronger dollar, which in a pricing to market environment will depress the value but not the volume of exports. The latter is inclined to overreact to underlying economic data.