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Needs more crisis

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Fed and the Bank of England minutes contrasted and converged. The Bank of England was a little more hawkish, the Fed a little more dovish, but the two central banks seem to be converging on an intense tightening debate in the second half of this year.
  • The EU leaders meet for an exchange of platitudes. Greece clearly dominates, but the limited sense of crisis is probably not enough to force the Euro area to do anything. A more intense crisis is probable necessary.
  • European manufacturing sentiment in the form of PMI data is due. France will, again, likely be reported as contracting. Again this will not be true. For what it is worth (not, perhaps, terribly much) the overall Euro area signal should be one of ongoing moderate expansion.
  • The US gives us the Philadelphia Fed sentiment survey – venerated because of its age, but perhaps a little crowded out by the range of other regional surveys. Of more interest, given the clear divisions at the FOMC, Williams and Fischer of the Fed are to speak.