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Up, up and away. Maybe.

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Greece paid the IMF using IMF money. The accounting sleight of hand raised some questions, but it is not that different from the repeated US practices during their interminable debt ceiling issues. It is just making full use of idle cash balances.
  • Euro area inflation is due. Spain is likely to have negative CPI (which is not deflation but a relative price change). German inflation surprised on the upside yet again, as it has done every month so far this year. The surprises coincide, though are not caused by quantitative policy.
  • German GDP in the first quarter was a little weaker than expected, as Germans unexpected spent money and chose to spend it on imports. French GDP data, but way of a counter-balance, was stronger than expected. Perhaps France is exporting to Germany?
  • The US gives evidence of US consumer hedonism with the retail sales report. We see headline weakness on lower auto sales and the seasonal adjustment process impacting gasoline sales, but with signs of underlying strength. The Senate failed to pass fast track approval for the TPP trade deal.