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Counting on the minutes

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The ECB goes through the regular process of deciding what amount of emergency cash to supply the Greek banking system with. As long as there is emergency support, the dysfunctional monetary union of the Euro area is bolstered.
  • Swiss CPI inflation (likely to be negative) is on the agenda, and although not normally of much interest internationally may gather some attention with markets speculating about where the Swiss National Bank might chose to intervene in foreign exchange markets.
  • US Fed minutes are due (there are also a couple of speakers). We expect the data dependent nature of Fed rate increases to be emphasised - because what else is a central bank going to be but data dependent? However, the bias to tighten should be clear. Job openings hit a cyclical high yesterday, demonstrating labour market strength.
  • Japan's balance of payments was boosted by the value effect of a weaker yen - which raised exports and overseas investment income. However the export number was not boosted as much as rising global trade and the weaker yen would suggest, implying Japanese domiciled exporters continue to lose market share overseas.