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Springtime in Europe?

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • In the Euro and its Greco-German crisis, something stirs. Specifically the Greeks have downgraded the role of the finance minister in negotiations. Markets have reacted with spring-like optimism (which is a bit rude) at this sign of Greek willingness to change to help achieve a solution.
  • The UK sits in splendid isolation in its northern fastness, doing little more than muttering "winter is coming" at the problems of the continent. Instead it is inward looking with GDP scheduled today, which the consensus expects to be a relatively robust 2.6% yoy (real). Nominal GDP is also strong and this helps mitigate the debt metrics.
  • Media reports have been swirling about China possibly engaging in quantitative policy. Actually, quantitative policy is often used by China, so there is nothing new in this. Rather the reports seem to refer to existing policies that are aimed at reducing the debt burden of selected sectors.
  • The US throws out consumer confidence today - inclined to overreact as ever but probably rising on the back of generally better labour conditions. From the housing market residential vacancies numbers are due - we have evidence of rising household formation in the US, and that story has been supported by recent data.