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Trade and employment

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • US import and export data comes today - data fraught with complications. US exporters are increasing market share overseas, but are doing so by holding foreign currency prices stable (weaker export values). US importers are not gaining market share. The port strike also impacts the numbers.
  • Tomorrow's US employment report is forecast relatively strong with a 5.4% unemployment figure and 260,000 payrolls. The data has a little downside following the ADP report, but the correlation between the series is not great. Fed Chair Yellen speaks today.
  • In Japan there have been more calls for BoJ easing to prevent the scourge of deflation. The problem with this is that most Japanese expect price inflation (and perceive price inflation) already, and it is real disposable income that is the focus for deflation fears.
  • The UK offers us constructions sentiment, and Switzerland offers us the entertainment of speculating about where the official, unofficial, official floor for the Swiss franc - Euro exchange rate actually lies, as the currency strengthens again.