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China, ECB and Fed Beige Book - a fun day

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Chinese data has been released, to be treated with all the reverence Chinese data deserves. China's Q1 GDP was 7% in line with expectations (of course). The retail sales figure was again over 10%, as it has been all quarter - indicating the shift in favour of the consumer within the economy.
  • The Euro area has media reports that Greece will not get cash before May - markets fret about this, but if innumerable debt ceiling crises in the US have taught us anything it is that we should be wary of assuming when governments run out of cash. German final consumer price inflation should confirm the initial acceleration.
  • The European Central Bank is not expected to do anything on policy, not is it likely to admit the deflation fears were never realistic in the Euro area. It will, however, likely point to improving credit conditions with a degree of complacency.
  • US manufacturing production should be relatively positive (better auto production is helping here). However lower oil prices and warmer weather will affect energy production and utilities production, which will weigh on headline industrial production. The Fed's Beige Book is scheduled for release.