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Greece will not default (the government says so)

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The Greek government has officially denied that it intends to default on its debt - this was not just a random denial, there were media reports suggesting the possibility). Today's Macro Keys looks at the risk that if Greece were to leave the Euro, they would pull others with them.
  • Sterling had a brief reaction to a UK opinion poll suggesting that the Conservative Party were six points ahead. Three subsequent polls showed no change with a neck and neck race, which rather dampened the market excitement. The BRC shop sales data showed the UK consumer continues strong.
  • US retail sales should be supported by the auto sector and a normalisation of consumer activity after bad weather. The weakness in retail sales has been anomalous and we expect the great American consumer to take their rightful place leading the US economy this year..
  • Euro area industrial production should be positive again - reflecting demand from economies like the US of course, but also perhaps signalling some selective signals of domestic demand creeping in.