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Inflation rising

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Euro area consumer price inflation is likely to be a little less negative for March (it is not, of course, deflation). Inflation has tended to surprise on the upside, but this does not validate the ECB's quantitative policy decision - central bank policies rarely turn inflation around within six weeks.
  • Euro unemployment is likely to be less positive at 11.2% - the story is in the diversity of Euro area labour market experiences, with the German labour market tight. UK final Q4 GDP is old news, but still pertinent politically as the general election campaign gets under way.
  • The Greek Prime Minister offered an impressive display of rhetoric in the Greek parliament overnight, calling on the opposition to back the government's negotiating stance. The German Chancellor, presiding over one of the world's more imbalanced economies, asked for Greek plans to "add up".
  • The US Chicago PMI of business sentiment is not an especially reliable indicator, but the precipitous drop in last month's data probably heightens interest in this month's figure. Consumer confidence is expected to rise a little. Four Fed speakers crowd the agenda.