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Politics is back (again)

| Posted by: Paul Donovan | Tags: Paul Donovan

  • Politics is back (though arguably it never went away). Markets have reacted in a general "risk off" manner to news of fighting in Yemen. The main impact has been via higher oil prices (moderately), although these are not yet of a scale to have meaningful economic consequences.
  • Higher oil prices do serve to underscore the transitory nature of commodities on consumer price inflation (and why relative price declines are not deflation). That principle may get some attention from the two Fed speakers on the agenda today - Bullard and Lockhart - who have a hawkish bent.
  • French final Q4 GDP is due for release, which is not much of a focus other than it underscores that sentiment data is largely unrelated to economic reality. The divergence of growth experience in the Euro, and the political consequences arising from that, are probably the most important consequence.
  • Euro area M3 money supply is due for release, and has a bearing as a barometer for the success of Mr Draghi's "big idea" of quantitative policy, in this it is as much the composition of M3 as the headline number that matters in assessing the effectiveness of attempts to improve the money transmission mechanism.