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And now for something serious

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  • Finally, something serious. The US employment report comes out and offers some relatively reliable data on the health of the US economy. We see a subdued 200,000 payrolls print, but unemployment should fall again and minimum wage increases should raise average earnings.
  • The Euro area is more focused on the German and Greek finance ministers glowering into each other's eyes across a crowded press conference. The risk is that politicians mistakenly believe that they control the risks (when the risks are controlled by bank depositors).
  • German and Spanish industrial production data are due, and the figures should be positive. The willingness of the US consumer to spend, spend, spend (as attested by yesterday's trade data release in the US) is one factor supporting the Euro economy.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia economic forecast revisions were rather mild for a central bank that has just cut interest rates, and would rather argue against a policy maker that is going to embark on an aggressive easing cycle. We see one further rate cut.