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Politics and policy, and data too

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  • The French finance minister (no stranger to missing fiscal targets) has offered to help Greece negotiate with the Troika over debt restructuring. The focus is on restructuring rather than reduction in nominal terms. The Greek government has asked the ECB to help with bank liquidity in the meantime.
  • News reports are offering conjecture on whether the Swiss National Bank is intervening in the currency markets or not - the language in the media is all vaguely reminiscent of the heady days of the Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in the early 1990s.
  • The UK ONS admitted it has been miscalculating (underestimating) consumer prices for a while, in a way that may have given a misleading impression about the risks of a housing bubble. UK manufacturing sentiment is due today, as is the Euro area manufacturing PMI sentiment.
  • The US ISM manufacturing sentiment data should show moderating expansion. Personal income data (forecast +0.7%) and personal expenditure data (forecast -0.3%) are due, along with the PCE price measure. The senior loan officers' survey of lending standards will be an important input into growth expectations.