Follow Paul Donovan

Finally, some economics

| Tags: Paul Donovan

  • The US FOMC release the minutes of their last meeting, and we expect the tone to be generally upbeat. The FOMC meeting preceded the positive employment report, but there does seem to be a concerted effort to steer markets towards a June rate increase, which the minutes should chime with.
  • Minutes are also due from the Bank of England. The Bank's view that low oil prices are a stimulus (ultimately inflationary) seem to be supported by the structure of inflation data in the UK. Evidence that the housing market is firming in spite of regulatory tightening may give a hawkish tinge to the release today.
  • The Bank of Japan left policy unchanged, which is no surprise, with a nod to better exports and industrial production. Export values are boosted by the yen's weakness, but export volumes may receive some support as consumers in the US show strength, and in the Euro area may show less weakness.
  • The Euro area is likely to be plagued by speculation about the Greek/German crisis, with newswire reports suggesting Greece would ask for a six month loan to sort things out. There is very little way of telling whether such reports are true or not, but markets will doubtless react to them anyway.