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Waiting for Wednesday and Greece (again)

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  • The Euro finance ministers are meeting tomorrow, and the prospect of another act in the Greek drama is likely to weigh on markets. We expect a deal to be done, but probably only after a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth (and that may not be metaphorical wailing and gnashing of teeth).
  • Chinese consumer price inflation came in at 0.8% yoy. This has no major impact on the rest of the world (much of Chinese consumer prices are food, and China is not a noted food exporter). Swiss inflation will attract attention in the wake of the currency move, but it is too soon for the franc to have had a genuine impact.
  • Interestingly the rise in the oil price (drifting slowly towards $60 for Brent) has not yet attracted much chatter, perhaps indicating the strength of the markets' disinflation mindset. Nonetheless even a modest rise in oil will lessen disinflation forces, and potentially affect consumer psychology.
  • The US NFIB survey of small business sentiment is due out. The survey has to be treated with caution as survey evidence has seemingly become less reliable in recent years, and there have been accusations of bias in the NFIB data, but that notwithstanding it should show a broadening of the US economic recovery.